Market Review Latin America 

1 Introduction

In this paper, we want to examine specifically the mining industry in Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Mexico and Peru. Following deep cuts in economic growth as a consequence of COVID-19, growth has now returned to pre-crisis levels (Fig. 1). For 2025, the IMF has forecast the highest growth of 2.6 % for Peru, followed by 2.5 % for Colombia, 2.4 % for Chile and 2.3 % for Brazil. The lowest growth of just 0.2 % is expected for Mexico. For Latin America overall, 2.4 % growth is forecast. With regard to inflation rates, however, the five countries mentioned above show much better development (Fig. 2). While the inflation rate stands at 6.9 % for Latin America, the five countries lie well below this. Peru is performing best with just 2.0 %. The other countries report an inflation rate between 3.3 and 3.5 %. In our view, the mining industry has led to a stabilization of the inflation rates.

2 Mining industry in the key countries in Latin America

The signals for the mining industry in Latin America are set to growth again. While a few years ago, the focus was on the extraction of coal and iron ore alongside copper, in the meantime, all critical minerals in the region are attracting interest to cover the high global demand. Chile, Peru and Mexico hold an estimated 40 % of global copper reserves, other reserves can be found in Argentina, Brazil, Colombia and Ecuador [1]. Around two thirds of the global lithium reserves are found in Latin America – mainly in Chile and Argentina. Mexico, Peru and Brazil hold smaller shares of this crucial mineral. The region also has considerable nickel reserves – Brazil holds over 17 % of the global nickel reserves, other reserves are found in Colombia [2]. Brazil also has over 19 % of the reserves of rare earths.

2.1 Brazil

The Brazilian economy is the largest economy in Latin America and, with a gross domestic product (GDP) of around 2.1 trill. US$, the eighth largest in the world. In 2024, the mining sector registered an increase in sales of 9.1 % compared to 2023 and reached a total of 270.8 bill. BRL (around 50.5 bill. US$, without oil and gas). The trade balance with mining products amounted to 34.95 bill. US$ and corresponds to 47 % of the Brazil’s overall trade balance of 74.55 bill. US$. Fig. 3 shows how mining sales have developed in recent years [3]. In 2020, there was no slump in the figures, but growth was reduced, although the industry was able to make up for this in 2021. Up to 2023, sales fell, a clear increase could only be registered in 2024. In 2024, 44.6 % of the sales alone were generated in the state of Minas Gerais in the south, another 41.5 % come from the state of Para in the north near the Amazon region.

The country is rich in natural resources. A total of 93 types of mineral are produced. In the international ranking, the country is the biggest producer and exporter of niobium and the second largest exporter of iron ore behind Australia as well as the third largest export nation for bauxite, behind China and Australia. According to the Brazilian Mining Association (IBRAM), over 210 000 people were directly employed in mining in 2024. More than 8700 direct new jobs were created between January and November 2024. The major mining companies include Vale and CSN Mineração from inside the country and AngloGold Ashanti (AGA Mineração), Kinross Gold and Lundi Mining from abroad. Fig. 4 shows the export volumes and revenue over the last three years. At the last count, export volumes reached 402 000 t with revenues of 43.43 bill. US$. The iron ore exports alone accounted for 389 000 t and 29.9 bill. US$, which illustrates the dependence on this strong mining sector.

Fig. 5 shows the shares of the different minerals in the sales in 2024. Iron ore leads with almost 60 % ahead of gold with around 9 %, copper with 7.5 % and bauxite with 2.1 %. Niobium only makes up just 10 000 t, brings in around 0.5 % of the revenues and makes up 92 % of the global production quantities. For iron ore, Brazil reaches second place for exports worldwide behind Australia (Fig. 6). The worldwide export of iron ore totalled 152.3 bill. US$ in 2024. This corresponds to an increase of 8.4 % compared to the prior-year period when iron ore shipments reached a value of 140.4 bill. US$. With its 29.9 bill. US$, Brazil accounts for 19.6 % of global exports, while Australia reaches around 54.5 % with 83.0 bill. US$. The TOP 5 iron ore export nations, which as well as Australia and Brazil include Canada, South Africa and China, account for 84.4 % of the global exports.

2.2 Chile

Chile stretches over 4270 km along the west coast of South America and borders the Pacific in the west, Peru in the north, Bolivia in the northeast and Argentina in the east. The country is traditionally regarded as one of the strongest Latin American countries in respect of its institutional facilities and fiscal policy. Despite a relatively high GDP of 19 729 US$ per capita, the economy weakened in 2022, it has, however, returned to growth of 2.4 % in 2024. The most important mining resources in Chile are copper with a 19.4 % share in global reserves, lithium (33 %), molybdenum (9.3 %) and silver (4.1 %). Fig. 7 shows the share of the mining sector in the GDP in Chile over recent years, which at the last count stood at 11.9 % [4]. Copper extraction generated 29.290 bill. US$ of this in 2023, all other minerals reached 10.693 bill. US$, i.e. copper took a share of 73.3 %.

Fig. 8 shows the most important five countries for global copper production. In 2024, Chile took a clear lead with 5506 million tonnes per year (Mta), followed by Peru with 2.712 Mta, China with 1.812 Mta, the USA with 1.059 Mta and Australia with 0.818 Mta. Chile reaches a global share of 24.1 %, followed by Peru with 11.9 % and China with 7.9 %. For lithium, Chile leads with a share of 33 % of the global reserves totalling 28 mill. t, followed by Australia with 22 % and Argentina with 13 %. For the production levels for lithium totalling 180 000 t in 2023. Chile reached only second place with 24 %, behind Australia with 48 % but ahead of China with 18 %. In Chile, several of the major mining companies are present, besides the international companies BHP Billiton, Anglo American, Teck Resources, Rio Tinto and Freeport McMoRan, the major locally based companies are Codelco, Antofagasta Minerals and Sociedad Quimica y Minera (SQM).

2.3 Colombia

Mining is a key sector of the Colombian economy and contributes 2.7 % to the national GDP, 30 % to the total exports and around 15 % to direct investment from abroad. Over 63 % of the revenue with mineral resources came from coal mining. In 2024, 59 Mta coal were extracted, 59.1 Mta were even exported, including 57.5 Mta steam coal and 1.5 Mta coking coal. Colombian coal impresses with its good quality and high calorific value, and it is therefore in high demand on international markets. Fig. 9 shows the regions for export. In 2024, a total of 21.6 Mta went to Asia, 18.2 Mta to other countries in Latin America and 17.9 Mta to Europe (northwest Europe imported 9.7 Mta, 3.4 Mta alone was shipped to Germany). In the international export business for coal, Colombia ranks fifth, behind Australia (362 Mta), Indonesia, Russia and the USA. In terms of global coal mining of 8.49 bill. t, Colombia is not that significant.

In Cerrojon, the biggest coal mine (Fig. 10) in the country, which belongs to Glencore, 19.2 Mta coal was mined at the last count. However, this surface mine is likely to be decommissioned in 2034. The Colombian government is therefore trying to increase mining for gold, copper, silver and nickel. However, for none of these metals has the country yet managed to take one of the top ten places in international ranking. In the past year, companies submitted 293 applications for the mining of copper, gold and other metals and exceeded the number of applications for coal mining projects. Besides Glencore, Xstrata and Anglo American, the major companies in mining include, the companies AngloGold Ashanti, Zijin Mining, Atico and Aris Mining and Cordoba Minerals. Zijin operates the Buritica Gold Mine, the biggest in the country. Atico operates the El Roble copper-gold mine west of Medellín.

2.4 Mexico

Mexico is rich in key mineral resources. With a share of 23.1 % in the worldwide production, Mexico is the leading nation for silver. For gold, it holds a share of 3.9 %, sharing 6^th place with Ghana and Kazakhstan, for copper, with 3.0 %, the country reaches 10^th place and for molybdenum, with 6.5 %, it reaches 5^th place, behind China, Peru, Chile, and the USA. Fig. 11 shows the production values for the most important metals for 2024 [5]. With 31 %, gold reaches first place, followed by copper (26 %), silver (22 %), zinc (7 %) and molybdenum (3 %). The Mexican mining industry recovered with 1.3 % growth after a very weak year and -4.3 % negative growth. The result was primarily attributed to the price development of several key metals. Big investments, however, were lost. Foreign investments in the mine industry fell in 2024 by 56.3 % to 1.525 bill. US$ compared to the previous year.

Fig. 12 shows the production figures for the most important nations for silver. With a production of 5762 t/a (or 5.762 kta), Mexico had a 23.1 % share in the global production of 24.946 kta in 2024. Peru reaches a share of 13.8 %, China 13.6 %, Chile 4.9 % and Australia 4.7 %. Fig. 13 shows a corresponding picture for molybdenum. Here, with a production output of 16.9 kta, Mexico holds a 6.5 % share in the worldwide production totalling 151.9 kta. Here, China leads with a share of 35.7 %, ahead of Peru (16.2 %), Chile (15.3 %) and the USA (13.0 %). In 2024, Mexico’s mining industry had a total of 416 000 employees. The highest gold production rates were reached by Torex Gold, Fresnillo, Newmont, Alamos Gold and Equinox Gold, for silver, the frontrunners were Newmont and Fresnillo, and for copper, the Grupo Mexico (Southern Copper) led the field.

2.5 Peru

In Peru, mining is one of the most important sectors of the economy with 256 000 employees at present. A share of 8.5 % in the GDP and 63.9 % of the country’s exports with an export value of 42.8 bill. US$ are achieved. With regard to copper output, the nation has risen with a quantity of 2.712 Mta to become the second largest producer behind Chile. For the mining of zinc, the country also occupies second place with 1.158 Mta behind China. For silver and molybdenum, with a quantity of 3.446 kt and 40.8 kt, it also reaches second place behind Mexico and China, respectively. With a good 100 t gold, Peru reaches fourth place in the global ranking. Fig. 14 shows the country comparison of the TOP nations for gold mining. With a quantity of 101.9 t in 2024, Peru holds a share of 3.3 % in the world with a total tonnage of 3099 t, behind China with 11.5 %, Australia with 9.2 % and the USA with 5.1 %, but ahead of South Africa with 2.9 %.

Fig. 15 shows the export value of mining products for the first 11 months of 2024 according to the most important products [6]. Copper makes up a share of 50.1 %, followed by gold with 31.9 %, zinc with 4.5 %, lead with 4.4 % and molybdenum with 3.4 %. The mining industry is still largely dominated by domestic companies. The major companies in Peru include Southern Peru Copper, Minera Bamba, Cerro Verde, Minera Antamina and Anglo American for copper, Minera Yanachoca, Minera Ponderosa, Consortion Minero Horizont, Minera Aurifera and Minera Boroo Misquichilca for Gold, Minera Antamina and Volcan Minera for zinc, Minera Antamina, Compania de Mines Buenaventura, Minera Chinalco and Volcan Minera for silver, Volcan Minera, Nexa Resources, Minera Chungar and Minera Kolpa for lead along with Southern Peru Copper, Cerro Verde, Minera Antamina and Anglo American for molybdenum [6].

3 Major mining companies in the region

3.1 Antofagasta, Chile

Antofagasta PLC is geared to the extraction of copper and its by-products. The company operates four copper mines in Chile: Los Pelambres, Centinela, Antucoya and Zaldívar. The company has over 29 000 employees, is committed to sustainable mining and pursuing a string of projects for decarbonization. In 2024, a total of 664 kta copper, 186.9 kOz gold, 2.8 MOz silver and 10.7 kta molybdenum were produced. The company reported sales of around 6.613 bill. US$ in 2024, the EBITDA was 3.427 bill. US$ (51,8 %), the pre-tax profit 2.071 bill. US$. Los Pelambres (Fig. 16) is the company’s biggest mine. There a total of 319.6 kta copper and concentrates for gold, silver and molybdenum were produced in 2024. Antofagasta owns a 60 % stake in a mine that has a remaining operating life of ten years. At present, two projects are underway to extend the operating life. For the Centinela-Mine, which still has a lifetime of 33 years, a second concentration line is planned.

3.2 Codelco, Chile

Codelco is the largest copper producer worldwide with a production level of 1442 kta copper and 16 kta molybdenum in 2024. The company has split its operations into two units. In the northern operations, there are the mines Andina, El Teniente and Salvador, in the southern operations the mines Chuquicamata, Gabriela Mistral, Ministro Hales and Radamiro Tomic. It employs a total of 15 831 people. In 2024, Codelco was responsible for around 16 % of all Chilean exports. Sales reached 16.993 bill. US$, pre-tax profit 4088 bill. US$ (31 %). In the Andina Mine (Fig. 17) a total of 181.6 kta copper was produced in 2024, which corresponds to a 10.4 % increase on 2023. Andina has, besides the El Teniente Mine, with a copper content of 0.82 % in the ore reserves one of the highest values. In the El Teniente Mine, the current development projects Diamante, Andesita and Andes Norte are aimed at helping to extend the operating life of the mine by 50 years.

3.3 Fresnillo, Mexico

Worldwide, Fresnillo is the largest producer of silver, and in addition, one of the biggest gold producers in Mexico. The company owns and operates the seven mines Herradura, Saucito, Juanicipio, Fresnillo, San Julian, Cienega and Noche Buena. In 2024, 56.3 MOz silver, 632 kOz gold and 66 kta lead and 117 kta zinc were extracted. With that, Fresnillo generated sales of 3.640 bill. US$ and a pre-tax profit of 744 mill. US$ (20.4 %). Herradura (Fig. 18) is the company’s largest surface mine for gold ore. There in 2024, a total of 22.742 Mta ore was extracted, up on the 20.224 Mta in the previous year (+12.5 %). The production volumes there in 2024 reached 361 kOz gold and 524 kOz silver. The average metal content in the ore amounted to 0.71 g/t gold and 1.2 g/t silver. Herradura alone generated sales of 884.7 mill. US$ in 2024, which contributed 24.3 % to the company’s sales and 22 % to the prior-year profit.

3.4 Southern Copper, Mexico and Peru

The Southern Copper Corporation is a company in the Grupo Mexico, which holds 88.9 % of the company, 11.1 % stock, on the other hand, is widely held on the stock exchange. With 51.1 Mt, it has the largest copper reserves of all listed companies in the world. In Mexico, five underground and two surface mines are operated, in Peru two surface mines, with 45 years average remaining lifetime. With copper production of 974 kta, it is the 5^th largest producer worldwide. The Buenavista Copper Mine (Fig. 19) in Mexico is one of the company’s largest mines. As by-products, a total of 28.997 kta molybdenum, 130.011 kta zinc and 20.983 kOz silver were produced in 2024. Sales grew in 2024 to 11.197 bill. US$, the EBITDA to 6.040 bill. US$ (54 %). In Peru, the Tia Mara Mine is to be expanded for 1.8 bill. US$ by 2027 – this expansion will deliver 120 kta copper. Other big investments up to 2032 concern the Los Chancas and Michiquillay Mines in Peru and the El Pilar and El Arco Mines in Mexico.

3.5 Vale, Brazil

Vale is one of the largest mining companies worldwide. The company has 64 000 employees and is active in 19 countries. In Latin America, these countries are Brazil, Argentina, Chile and Peru. In Brazil, three iron ore production units are operated, North, Southeast and South with a total of 8 mine complexes and 11 pelletization plants. The Project SD11 (Fig. 20) in Serra Sul (North System) alone has a capacity of 90 Mta iron ore. In 2024, a total of 328 Mta iron ore, 37 Mta iron ore pellets, 338 kta copper and 160 kta nickel were produced at Vale. With this, the company generated sales of 38.1 bill. US$, the pro forma EBITDA reached 15.4 bill. US$ (40.4 %). The CapEx of the company totalled 6.0 bill. US$ in 2024. The company is pursuing numerous expansion projects. Up to 2030, 300 Mta iron ore will be produced, for nickel 220 to 250 kta are the goal. The circular economy has a high priority at Vale. In Brazil, 100 % of the energy used comes from renewable resources.

4 Outlook

Future projections are always problematic. That applies particularly to future demands for energy and resources. Latin America is increasingly taking on the role of supplying the world with resources – just think about copper, lithium, nickel and other key metals. Focus is on supply of iron ore, concentrated iron ore pellets and bauxite. Latin America can make a very big contribution to this. That should not be at the expense of the population caused by increasing environmental impact, shortage of potable water and further destruction of rainforests like the Amazon rainforest. Here many more efforts and measures are required from the government and mining companies, and without a functioning circular economy, many mining resources will dry up in just a few years.